Bottleneck Hunter

This skill hunts for supply chain bottlenecks and arbitrage opportunities across global industries by mapping where value concentrates in production chains and identifying underappreciated suppliers. It moves beyond surface-level trends to find the critical-path companies that, if disrupted, would halt entire industries—the real alpha typically sits in Layer 2 and Layer 3 (sub-components, materials, equipment), not the already-priced Layer 1 (GPUs, HBM memory).

What it does

• Trend confirmation — Validates that a mega-trend (AI infrastructure, energy transition, semiconductor re-industrialization) meets four criteria: 3–5 year durability, physical hardware/material requirements, >$50B annual global capex, and demand growth outpacing supply expansion.
• Physical supply chain decomposition — Breaks every trend into layers (from Layer 0 end-products down to Layer 4 infrastructure), then flags Layer 2–3 bottlenecks where alpha concentrates.
• Bottleneck scoring — Ranks each supply pinch point across six dimensions: supplier concentration (≤3 global suppliers = red flag), expansion timeline (>2 years = red), substitutability, capacity utilization, demand growth rate, and customer validation cycles.
• Public company screening — Identifies listed companies positioned in S-tier (single-point-failure) and A-tier bottlenecks, filters by revenue exposure (>30% from bottleneck business), market cap, and liquidity.
• Valuation gatekeeping — Enforces hard filters: PS>30x without >100% revenue growth, market cap >20% of serviceable market, or market cap >10x five-year earnings projection = "overvalued" flag; prevents recommending 100x PS unprofitable companies.
• Cross-validation — Confirms bottleneck reality via customer mentions in earnings, recent lead-time data, pricing trends, and capex guidance; challenges each thesis with reverse questions (Can competitors replicate capacity? Is there a substitute technology?).

How to use it

Provide a specific mega-trend or supply-chain question (e.g., "AI data center build-out" or "lithium battery production constraints"). The skill executes a seven-step workflow: confirms the trend's legitimacy with capital expenditure data and verified demand signals; decomposes the supply chain into physical layers; identifies bottleneck nodes using concentration, lead time, and utilization metrics; screens for listed suppliers; applies valuation checks (PS, PE, TAM-relative market cap); cross-validates via customer filings and market data; and outputs a ranked opportunity table with signal strength (★★ to ★★★★★) tied directly to valuation pass/fail. Each opportunity includes a one-page summary with catalysts, risks, and a safe-margin calculation (10-year 25x PE exit scenario).

Note: this skill's internal instructions are written in Chinese. Claude reads them natively and will work with you in English.